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Dr. K. H. Coats

 

 

SensorPx Example 3

Fewer runs are required for optimizations when the operational alternatives have larger effects on results.  We repeat the workflow used in Example 2 to determine the probability that option c is better than option a (which is shown in Example 1 to be the worst possible choice).

Use the same Example2 work directory as in Example 2.  Execute the following 5 commands (or perform the equivalent in Windows Explorer, given in blue and in parenthesis following each command) to run the same 1000 realizations of the unknowns for operational option a:

 1. cd Example2\example2_1k

 (in Windows Explorer (WE), navigate to the Example 2 example2_1k folder)

 2. ospe1a.mspx

 (WE - double click on ospe1a.mspx)

 3. runs.bat

 (WE - double click on runs.bat)

 4. move results results_spe1a

 (WE - right click on the results folder, and rename to            results_spe1a)

 5. move sensor.stat results_spe1a\a_sensor.stat

 (WE - copy and paste or drag sensor.stat to the results_spe1a folder, and rename it to a_sensor.stat)

The results file we obtained is a_sensor.stat.  Comparison of cumulative oil production for the first 100 runs with that reported in c_sensor.stat shows that option c significantly outperforms option a in all of the first 100 cases.  We estimate that the probability that option c will outperform option a is 100%, based on those first 100 cases..  That result can be correctly obtained with a minimum of 1 case, and confidence in that 100% estimate may be sufficiently assured by the first 50 or 100 realizations that give it.

 


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